New Zealand v Bangladesh
Friday 19 March 22.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
New Zealand are without Kane Williamson because of an elbow injury. Tom Latham will skipper in his absence.
The batting unit remains strong, though, and Devon Conway, a star in the T20 team, gets an opportunity to cement his place in 50-overs. He should make his debut at No 3 if the Kiwis persist with Henry Nicholls as Martin Guptill’s opening partner.
Ross Taylor is also absent so Mark Chapman comes in. He and Latham could be the glue in the middle-order but a fairer call would be Will young, in the original squad, to play. Jimmy Neesham is charged with late hitting while Kyle Jamieson is expected to continue his meteoric rise. There’s no Lockie Ferguson but there’s little wrong with the bowling unit, either.
Probable XI Guptill, Nicholls, Conway, Young, Latham, Neesham, Santner, Jamieson, Southee, Boult, Henry
Bangladesh are not at full-strength, either. There is no Shakib-al-Hasan, a significant blow considering his all-round ability.
With Shakib in the XI in the last three years Bangaldesh win 63.5% of the time. Without him that drops to 53. That’s a whopping difference considering the opposition is not cream of the crop.
History is not on their side, either. In 2019 they got pumped 3-0 and their senior batsmen had nightmares. Tamim Iqbal managed ten runs in three innings while Mushfiqur and Mahmudullah averaged 15 and 12 respectively. They simply must do better to be competitive.
There’s plenty to like about Bangladesh with the ball, however. Mustafizur Rahman, Mohammad Saifuddin and Taskin Ahmed are an exciting pace trio while Mehidy Hasan Miraz can further enhance his credentials as an emerging all-rounder.
Possible XI Tamim, Das, Shanto, Mushfiqur, Mithun, Mahmudallah, Soumya, Saifuddin, Mehidy, Mustafizur, Taskin
We are expecting big runs at the University Oval. The run rate in ten ODI played there is 5.25 and in the last four innings 330 has been busted. In 2019 New Zealand made 330 in duffing up the Bangladeshis. In four Ford Trophy matches last year the first-innings scores read: 243-323-354-407.
If the Kiwis bat first they should be aiming for a minimum of 320. So we’re very keen to get with them for runs on the exchange’s innings runs market. You should be able to get 2.1011/10 that they bust 310 or more. And that would be a top-rated wager. Don’t be afraid of taking big numbers about something massive (370, 380, 390), however, particularly as the weather is set fair.
Can Bangladesh make a game of it?
Early days on the match odds market but Bangladesh are given little chance. They are priced at 7.206/1 with New Zealand 1.152/13. We would expect the home team to go off bigger than that.
It’s not a write-off, however. There’s room in that Bangladesh price to take a trade but only if they bat first. They are capable of getting some runs to bring maybe two to three points off that starting price. If New Zealand bat first we expect them to get very, very short, very, very quickly.
Guptill gets favourite status at 23/10 and although on win rate he should be more like 4/1, a flat wicket and a depleted line-uop makes him a better bet than normal with Sportsbook. Nicholls is 7/2 and COnway the same.
For Bangladesh, there’s nowt wrong with a 20/1 nibble on Mehidy, particularly with that flaky record of the top order in mind. Saifuddin is also underrated at 4s for top bowler.
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