CLOSE Ind 98-3 Er, what? Strauss-y and Cook-y reckon England haven’t had the rub of the green? Am I having a fever dream? They were bowled out for 112. They have been appalling. This Test was over after midway through the second session on the first day. In all probability batting will be easier tomorrow after the heavy roller has done its work and the ball gets even softer.
WICKET Ind 98-3 Crickey. Where did that come from? Kohli has chopped one on. Pope’s drop is not costly and England give themselves some cheer at the end of the day. And guess what? Another wager goes down. This Test can really do one.
Ind 91-2 Er, that’s out isn’t it? Or at the very least the third umpire needs to be looking much, much closer at that Rohit stumping review. It looked on the line and very, very close to being in the air to boot. Trigger happy third umps in this series so far after we saw in game two the reviewer not taking the time to explore all options.
Ind 91-2 If there is one man you don’t drop, it’s Kohli. An absolute dolly, too. Pope is the culprit. It caps a terrible day for England. One of the worst you’l ever see. Pope is not having a great tour. He comes with justifiable hype but there comes a time when he needs to start putting some scores down. He might be under pressure next summer if he ends the winter without notching something significant.
Ind 90-2 To add to England’s worries, they are not happy with the footmarks which have disintegrated basically. Great big craters they are. Broad was overheard asking the umpire whether they could mix some diurt and mud to patch it up overnight. Nothing doing seemed to be the answer.
Ind 83-2 Nice fifty for Rohit. Batting has looked much easier now the lacquer has gone from that pink ball. not that is was particularly treacherous early on. Not sure England bowled particularly well with it anyway. They were too short. It was a bit back-of-a-lengthy. They never really gave it the chance to hoop. Which is strange because pre-match they had worked themselves into a frenzy at what it might do under lights.
Ind 67-2 To answer that question, I still think it’s a good wicket. It’s about batsmanship and application. India really should be capable of busting 350 with the threat only coming from one bowler – Leach We have already discussed how the degree of swing on the pink ball goes through the floor after the 20th over. So can Leach prevent India from running amok on his own? Probably not.
What do u feel now looking at the runs? @cricketbetting
? Favorite Lover (@VDD88522547) February 24, 2021
Ind 47-2 Kohli is 10/11 for 40.5 runs or more. How often does he breach such a mark in the first innings at home? Glad you asked. It’s 19 out of 42. Which, alas, doesn’t make it a wager.
Ind 34-2 Test cricket is a harsh game. If you get it wrong, you pay. And that goes for judgement of the wicket and the timing of when you place your bets. We’ve felt the pitch is good on day one. And so far we’ve got that horribly wrong so we’re right under the pump. We are on Kohli for a century at 7/2. Would be good of him to turn up.
WICKET Ind 34-2 Pujara goes for a duck. Disastrous timing. About two balls after we’d gone long on India runs. And our Pujara ton bet goes down. Hate betting. Mood not improved by Babar being outmuscled by Sharjeel in the PSL.
BET Ind 34-1 Gill goes. It’s a mistake off Archer. He’s trying to pull opne from wide outside off and it’s gone straight up. Pujara the new man in. We have wagered him for a century at 5/1. I doubt he’s seen anything that worries him so far. We’ll take advantage of that wicket to get India for 325 or more at a shade avove even money for two points.
Ind 14-0 England have problems. It ain’t swinging. The lights are on. The sky is dark. Stuart Broad and James Anderson are also struggling with their footholds. We’re looking out for a play on India innings runs. Sportsbook go over 319.5 at 10/11.
Ind 9-0 The pink ball does swing more than the red ball. Well, in Australia it does at least. The red ball will have an average swing of 0.8 degrees in the first ten overs. The pink ball will have movement of just shy of 1 degree. It does not swing for longer, though. While the pink ball movement falls off a cliff after 15 overs or so, the red ball movement holds up pretty well through overs 30-80. In short, India should find batting (against seamers) significantly easier after over 11.
Ind 9-0 England need to pitch this ball up to see if it will swing. If they are to stay in the series, they have to run through India. Now or never. The portents (or rather the stats) are good. The third session is tricky against seamers with the pink ball. The batting average against seamers with the pink ball across the 15 day-night Tests is 24.76. In the first session it’s 23.6.
SUPPER Ind 5-0 In the meantime, check out our PSL preview for today’s game – plus best bets – which gets away in 20 or so…
SUPPER Ind 5-0 Five overs possible before the break. England thought they had Gill but he earned a reprieve thanks to the third umpire. There’s not been much swing from those early exchanges but England were probably guilty of bowling too short (Broad in particular). Dew could also be a factor after the break and it’s not likely to help England if that extra layer of lacquer gets slippery.
Ind 0-0 If the stereotype is that England can’t play spin, then India can’t play swing. So if it swings, conditions should be testing. The ANderson-Broad axis is the most lethal in the world when the ball moves. Broad has induced an edge off Gill. Stokes snaffles but the third umpire has ruled it’s bounced. England irked. Not sure why. The TV replay doesn’t look good for Stokes.
Ind 0-0 England desperately need the pink ball to do soemthing, for some time, under lights. If it does, they have the attack to make inroads. So let’s see what happens. Sportsbook pitch the runs line at 297.5.
Eng 112 Broad out. Axar claims a six-wicket haul. Why are England playing only one spinner? They are taking heat for their selection already. It is a damning indictment of Dom Bess’s ability. As a spinner if you are not deemed trustworthy on this pitch, or any pitch in India for that matter, then you should be nowhere near the squad. And he probably won’t be for a long time when this tour is done. He is the big loser of this match. England picked their best available players. They didn’t pick the players best suited to the conditions. And that’s fair enough. If Bess is not worthy of a place then what else could they do? Well, the chief criticism that should be levelled at them is not finding a replacement for Bess as soon as they were reminded that Moeen would fly home after game two.
Eng 104-8 May as well start having a look at top India bat. Didn’t expect to be saying that at this stage. Who is value? Well, Kohli is. He has a win rate of 40% and, rather helpfully, Sportsbook have boosted his price to 5/2. As you can see from our analysis of the tops markets here, we’re keen on him for runs. Likewise Chet Pujara.
India top batsman wins/matches
Pujara 5 t/32
WICKET Eng 98-8 Leach gone. India 1.101/10 just after the first session. That is really quite something. We maintain that’s there’s nowt wrong with the pitch. So thinking ahead to India’s innings we have to put this disastrous batting effort out of our minds and be bold, expecting India to dominate with the willow, too. This could all be over in two-and-a-half-days. Day 3 morning and afternoon finishes are 3.8014/5 and 6.05/1 respectively.
WICKET Eng 93-7 Archer gone. England currently achieving the mirage of making this track look tougher than Chennai Mark II. Which is quite something.
Eng 93-6 It’s not the pitch, it’s not the pink ball, it’s not the lights (they ain’t even on). It’s ability. England just haven’t batted with enough skill. And when you’ve got one team (the outsider) who don’t bridge the gap then it makes life very difficult indeed. Our Stokes and Pope bet has gone down. And we’re under the pump for innings runs. England aren’t even managing something below par. We were on at 284. But, but…my betting.betfair colleague did advise Jofra Archer at 100-1 for top bat during this series during our series preview on the podcast a few weeks back. So what are you moaning about…
Eng 88-6 Game moving at such a rate that we can’t keep up. The disaster continues for England, who are being blown away. Foakes and Archer now involved in a rescue job. India 1.141/7 and England as big as 3.72 for 175 or more.
LUNCH Eng 81-4 A disastrous session for England. That could well be the Test match without a significant partnership of 100 or more. Pope and Stokes are technically up there with Joe Root. Wee have wagered both for fifties at 2.506/4 and 3.505/2 respectively. Sportsbook go 5/4 for Stokes to bust 40.5. Pope is 10/11 for 19.5 or more. A big disparity, there. In short, Sportsbook don’t rate Pope. That’s why they went as big as 8s for top bat. If we weren’t on for a fifty we’d be all over that runs quote. While you;’re having your elevenses, why not give this week’s Cricket…Only Bettor a pod a listen. Best Best for Friday’s Pakistan Super League and tomorrow’s New Zealand v Australia T20 clash.
WICKET Eng 80-4 Oof. England in trouble. They’re being done by a subtle craft rather than anyting outrageous. a nifty fifty from Crawley, who is done over by Axar. India price collapsing to 1.331/3. Just to really oput the willies up England fans, Jofra Archer will be at No 8.
Eng 80-3 Stokes on the move against Ashwin. Down the pitch. Then plonks him over the top for four. His defence will be attack, then. In this Test there won’t be one with his name on as per the last game, though, so he doesn’t need to be quite so gung-ho.
WICKET Eng 74-3
India have the big one. Root is leg-before to Ashwin. England desperately need to knuckl;e down now. For them. And for us. Stokes the new man. We are on him for a fifty at 2.506/4 pre-match. Seen nowt to change our mind. His troubles against Ashwin are well-documented but there’s nothing outrageous from this surface. India 1.412/5, England 3.953/1 and the draw 21.020/1. Surely it’s not going to be one of those Tests where the opportunities for market moves are done for after the first session?
We’ve had some gremlins with the blog this morning. So, if you’ve missed out here’s a quick summary of what we’ve been wibbling on about…
Wicket is good for batting. Advised a wager on innings runs. Currently available at more than 292.5 at 10/11
A trade on the draw price. We expect it to collapse with England runs. Market will reckon India trump whatever the tourists get. Currently 13.012/1.
Big difference of opinion between two teams on what this pitch will do. But India at disadvantage having to bat last.
Eng 45-2 Sportsbook go 1/11 for Crawley 63.5 or more. And 10/11 for 48.5 or more for Root. Would like to see what Ashwin does before getting involved in those. Ashwin will be Crawley’s great test consideirng his poor form against spin in Sri Lanka.
Eng 45-2 Crawley looking like a million bucks. His value could come down somewhat when Ashwin comes on to bowl. Surely that’s imminent. Entirely conscious we said that 20 minutes ago, too.
WICKET Eng 27-2 Axar takes Bairstow out leg-before. England making a mess of this on a decent surface for batting. Keep an eye on Crawley. He has issues against spin. Presumably Ashwin is seconds away. India 1.538/15, England 3.7511/4 and the draw 11.0010/1.
TRADE Eng 27-1 The draw is 9.008/1. If we expect England to score well, we should also expect the draw price to collapse. That’s because the market will believe that whatever England can score, India can beat. So a big chunk of time is taken out of the game. If we take 9.008/1 now, we can trade that for a profit as significantly shorter odds. Probably below 3.002/1.
BET Eng 18-1 If all is fair in love in war (England concentrate and don’t bat like mugs), they should post 400 on this. There’s a bit of shape with the new ball but it’s as you would expect. There is pesimism about their runs line, though. Youi can get even money for more than 284.5. That looks like a wager to us. One point.
Eng 8-1 Sportsbook go 11/4 that the next dismissal is leg-before. It’s alive. Bumrah and Ishant are able to shape the ball into the pads. They’re searching for it. Bairstow, with his trigger movement across, could be particularly vulnerable.
WICKET Eng 2-1 Ishant snares Sibley for a duck. Pretty standard new ball dismissal for a Test. Held its line, had a bit of shape on it. No evidence at present that the ball is swinging round corners or doing bits off the surface. India in to 1.564/7, England 3.7511/4 and the draw 9.809/1 Big overreaction to all three prices I’d say.
Eng 2-0 Difference of opinion about this surface between the two teams. England have one spinner plus Joe Root to help out. India have three. England bat down to No 7 (Jofra Archer is a place too high at No 8), India to No 9 with Axar Patel. One suspects India have the better balance, if they were batting first.
Eng 0-0 We need to have a good look at this wicket before we think about a wager. But, it looks pretty flat. Sportsbook for 5/4 that England bust 325 or more.
ENGLAND WIN THE TOSS & BAT What will the pitch do then? It looks like a classic India strip. You bat first, you go big and then a wearing surface brings your spinners into play. A bit of an ouchy then that India have picked three spinners and will not get to bowl on it in the fourth.
There doesn’t seem to be much grass on the surface at all. There were a few areas which looked like they could crack or open up as play goes on. What is important is the type of soil. It’s the Mumbai soil, which was similar to game two. England really should be capable of busting 350. That puts them in the box seat.
ENGLAND WIN THE TOSS & BAT Here are your won rates for top England batsman in the first dig…
England top bat wins/matches
Pope is stand out value at 8/1. Stokes gives us just under one percentage point. We are on both for fifties at 3.505/2 and 2.608/5. There’s nowt wrong with backing either for tops, though.
ENGLAND WIN THE TOSS & BAT
? CricketMAN2 (@man4_cricket) February 24, 2021
ENGLAND WIN THE TOSS & BAT First on the agenda is a check back at our match odds preview here. We are keen on England batting first. And as for top bats and bowlers, all eyes on Ben Stokes and Ollie Pope. We have lined up wagers on both to score fifties.
ENGLAND WIN THE TOSS & BAT Right, that’s then. England to take a 2-1 lead. It’s that simple, innit? Pitch will be at its best in the firs-innings, then it will take wear and tear and England win by 60-70 defending 280 in the fourth. See you in five days.
Or maybe not. Let’s take a price check, though. India out to 1.855/6, England take a big cut into 3.1511/5 and the draw is 6.6011/2.
India 1 Rohit Sharma, 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Cheteshwar Pujara, 4 Virat Kohli (capt), 5 Ajinkya Rahane, 6 Rishabh Pant (wk), 7 R Ashwin, 8 Washington Sundar, 9 Axar Patel, 10 Ishant Sharma, 11 Jasprit Bumrah
England 1 Dom Sibley, 2 Jonny Bairstow, 3 Zak Crawley, 4 Joe Root (capt), 5 Ben Stokes, 6 Ollie Pope, 7 Ben Foakes (wk), 8 Jofra Archer, 9 Jack Leach, 10 James Anderson, 11 Stuart Broad