07.18 Ind 106-4
There you go. Edges don’t last long in this game. Runs off an over market is back but it’s now 4/6 for over 2.5. No thanks. Still cops though as Pant punt for the third single.
07.18 Ind 105-4
Annoying. Two overs in to our scheme at +0.38, Sportsbook take down the market.
07.03 Ind 95-4
Sportsbook over 2.5 runs for this Bess over at 11/8. Let’s keep a rate of how often that busts. Bet you we can make a ton on one-point stakes when he bowls. It’s an algorithm price one suspects.
LUNCH 06.56 Ind 90-4
Back after the break to tell you Bess has been driven for four from a full toss. They need to get him off. Anderson is doing well at the other end, bess is releasing the valve. leach needs to bowl. or Toot. bess cannot be trusted, I’m afraid to say.
LUNCH 06.02 Ind 80-4
England have had a good morning. Three wickets. Rahane goes to Anderson, brought back because some swing turned up. And he doesn’t miss the mark often when it starts to bend. If it continues to move in the air, England are a bet at 4.003/1 because there are just a few hints that the surface is beginning to break up. India won’t fancy going after 175 on this in the fourth.
05.47 Ind 66-3
Rahane has 18 from 29 amid a flurry of strokes. His run quote is 43.5. He has busted that mark 11 times out of 31 in home Tests in the first-innings. That’s a sell at odds of 10/11. But they always are. Those markets are set deliberately low because the punters has buying mentality or a positive mentality. It almost always pays to short. Unless Bess comes on. Which he does. Could be a boundary an over here.
05.36 Ind 55-3
India innings runs available at overs and unders at 268.5 with Sportsbook. Some change from the start of the day. Or even before the Pujara wicket when it was set at 345.5. A couple of balls ago a Leach delivery almost took off Rohit’s face from a length.
05.25 Ind 41-3
Tricky this, isn’t it? Only 23 runs so far in this session. England have bowled tight lines. Been very good. Picked up two wickets. But that urge to go against the tide is strong in the punter. Can’t we get with India here for runs? Now’s a good time to do it with an overreaction to the wicket of their best batsman? Stokes is surely coming to the end of a spell? England are a bowler light? Bess is going to spray it around? The wicket really doesn’t look difficult. But batsmen keep getting out, don’t they?
WICKET 05.13 Ind 41-3
Drinks break brings another wicket. Same as yesterday. And it’s huge. Kohli goes. Stokes got one to lift from nowhere. And England reckon they are bang in the game. They are in to 4.003/1. Will this pitch get easier?
WICKET 04.58 Ind 40-2
Leach gets Pujara, who has had a very poor series. He was strokeless this morning. For the criticism of England players who got out to straight balls yesterday, add him to the list. Didn’t really turn. Went straight on. Only a few bals before he had jammed bat and pad together just in time. Didn’t get away with this one. England in to 6.6011/2 and the draw back out to 36.035/1.
04.39 Ind 30-1
That draw trade we mentioned? Well, it’s now in to 24.0023/1 from 40.0039/1. That’s a heavy dip after so little to play. An overreaction probably bit shows how quick it will come in without wickets on day two. England have worked hard with Anderson and Stokes in mean form. But no joy and so the England price has drifted quickly. Out to 10.009/1.
04.19 Ind 27-1
We can feel warm and cosy and very pleased with ourselves that we have spotted England’s plan of attack. But not much point if the analysis below shows it’s unlikely to work. That’s why we’re not rushing to take that England price. Our nagging doubt about that wager is caused by more than the stat below. We’re not sure this wicket, in about 40 minutes or so, is going to get much easier. So if Rohit and Pujara can hang on in there, this could finally be the innings when India make a sizeable score in this series. We’re not fussed about a wait for, say, an innings runs bet either. We will have to take a higher price but not by much.
04.16 Ind 27-1
This. This is what you’re betting on…
England have bowled a very tight line to Rohit Sharma, targeting his pads. While James Anderson is capable of greater accuracy than most bowlers, Rohit has not typically struggled with this angle of attack – he’s been out LBW against seamers just once in 27 home innings. #INDvENG
? The CricViz Analyst (@cricvizanalyst) March 5, 2021
04.07 Ind 26-1
James Anderson straight into his work. And so are we. The market moves will come from the England or draw price, naturally, today. England need wickets. A similar effort in India’s first-innings from game three will do nicely. Anderson needs new-ball action, though. He is getting it to dart back into the pads. Three clicks could come off the away price sharply of he can grab a couple straight up. Rohit looks a little flat footed. And we note the next wicket dismissal of lbw at 11/4 with that movement back in. India runs are quoted at over/under 330 at 10/11. Were they to be on course for that we would see the draw fall from 40.039/1. That could well be the trade of the day, taking a large margin on a back-to-lay.
04.00 Ind 24-1
Welcome back to the blog from my spare bedroom. Snuggle in next to me. Are India in for a cosy day against a dozy England attack? IOs this wicket a featherbed? Or will it give the home batsmen nightmares? Does Dom Bess stalk all of our darkest moments? Has he been up all night worrying if he can six out of six of his stock ball? Nah. He knows he can’t do that. Anyway, plenty of action and potential wagers today. First we’d like a Pujara century. Here are the odds: 1.222/9 India, 6.05/1 England, 40.039/1 the draw.