Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Renegades
Friday 8 January, 07:10
TV: live on BT Sport
Strikers remain in contention for a play-off spot after barely breaking sweat in their victory over Renegades on Tuesday. They won by 60 runs after they produced one of their best batting efforts, posting 171.
And this despite the opening combination failing again. Phil Salt is having a wretched time. The runs came from the middle order with Ryan Gibson and Jake Weatherald providing impetus from a pedestrian 72 for four in the 11th. Wes Agar and Peter Siddle then combined for three wickets apiece as Renegades were dismissed for just 111.
Another go at the Renegades is good timing to build up a head of steam. They will need it as Rashid Khan is set miss the denouement of the group stages and play-offs to be with Afghanistan.
Possible XI Renshaw, Salt, Carey, Wells, Gibson, Weatherald, Rashid Khan, Worrall, Briggs Siddle, Agar
Renegades depleted again
Being blown away for just 111 actually wasn’t a bad effort for Renegades in the context of a record-breaking season. They had suffered three of the biggest defeats in Bash history and three times been bowled out for under 100.
Their batting has already been depleted by a hamstring injury to Rilee Rossouw and Shaun Marsh’s absence to be present for the birth of his child. Mackenzie Harvey and Jake Fraser-McGurk have come in but the latter was used at No 7 with Mohammad Nabi promoted to No 4.
Bowlers are being to lose confidence, too. Josh Lalor, normally such a reliable performer, seems to be all over the shop. With Imran Tahir confirming he will not play this season, Renegades look to have given up the ghost.
Possible XI Finch, Harvey, Harper, Nabi, Webster, Prestwidge, Fraser-McGurk, Imad, Richardson, Lalor, Ahmed
The key number for the Adelaide Oval is 67. That’s the percentage number that sides bust 160 in the last five competitions and the percentage times a team defending wins. With such reliable data it would be foolish to go against it. As discussed in the first game between these two, taking a decent number on 170 or more seems the way to go because the data offers a comfort rug.
Look for a trade
Strikers are 1.618/13 with Renegades 2.506/4. We only play a 1.608/13 shot if the team has proved they are masters of the art over several seasons. Strikers are not that team.
They have excellent bowling plans but their batting leaves a lot to be desired. Still, they should have enough to make it a double over the Renegades.
A wagering strategy, then, has to be based on the visitors getting a foothold in the game. The toss is our guide. If Renegades bat first we might be able to trade from 2.506/4 to 1.804/5. If they don’t, we would hope for early Renegades wicket for a similar price shift.
Renegades need Aaron Finch more than ever to step up. But he is having an average Bash. These are his scores this term (most recent first): 0-8-18-39-20-12-35. It’s not a disastrous sequence. Finch has got starts and, importantly, his strike rate has been strong suggesting he is seeing it well.
He is well overdue a win on top batsman. His win rate in the last three years has dipped from 41% to 29%. Alas even with Sportsbook price boosting him to 21/10 (32%) we can’t recommend getting involved.
For Strikers there is value all over the shop. Jono Wells (9/2), Jake Weatherald (6/1) and Ryan Gibson (13/1) are all underrated by Sportsbook. Gibson looks to be the pick.