Welcome to Betting.Betfair’s live blog for the second Test. It’s the third day and England are staring certain defeat in the face. Can they make India wait?
CLOSE Eng 53-3/strong> That’s your lot. Someghow Root has survived. Look like a glitch in DRS because a leg before review appeared to show all stumps being knocked over but it stays with umpire’s call. Both men have to start afresh tomorrow. England’s challenge is to survive until lunch. It was almost an appeal a ball by the end. India will wrap up the win tomorrow. Join us.
WICKET Eng 50-3/strong> Leach goes first ball. Axar takes a 2-1 lead over Ashwin. England had been doing okay and then, suddenly, they’re in the same position as they were in the first dig.
WICKET Eng 49-2/strong> Burns puts his place in jeopardy for game three with another failure. With Crawley expected to be fit, they could change up the opening partnership and find room for Bairstow at No 3. That is unless Lawrence produced something special. Jack Leach has come in as nightwatchman. That should help his cause.
Eng 17-1/strong> Looking long-term on England runs. It’s hard now but might get easier. Liking 10/11 that Sportsbook offer about Lawrence gong under 23.5. He looks all at sea.
WICKET Eng 17-1/strong> The Axar falls on Sibley, who was playimg across the line horribly. Axar was 5/2 for top India bowler with Ashwin going off at 4/7. Ooof. He shortened up. As we said he is about an even money chance to return money. Lawrence next in. He needs a score otherwise his series looks likely to be done with Crawley coming back to fitness, Bairstow in town.
Eng 17-0 Missed chance. Burns edges but Pant can’t gather. The bowler was, unsurprisingly, Ashwin. Cor, it’s tricky. But Burns looking positive. As a left-hander he is more vulnerable to Ashwin who has taken the wicket of more left-handers than anyone.
Eng 0-0 Last three years data here. Stokes originally 5s, into 7/2 and now back out to 4s. Lawrence as big as 8/1, which tells you what Sportsbook think of him. Root 9/4, Sibley 5s, Pope and Burns 6s, Moeen 12, Foakes 7.
England top bat wins/second innings
Root 5 t/29
India 286, lead by 481 runs Last two wickets out on 76. Which is a disgrace when you’ve done your dough on a lay of 250 or more. But surely it suggests the pitch has lost its demons? With the old ball at least. Wouldn’t want to be playing innings runs just yet on England. Could be very tough with Ashwin taking the new ball. But then things getting easier when it loses its hardness. We will probably try to be cute, expecting early wickets and then a partnership.
India 276-9, lead by 471 How many do England get in their second innings? Kohli, and then Ashwin, have shown them how to bat. It’s tough for them to copy the former but there’s no problem with the latter. The wisdom is that, once the ball is old, the turn is pretty slow. And batting is easier. We’re not seeing the outrageous turn and bit from earlier in the Test. So England should be able to improve on their first effort – an increaingly miserable-looking 134. They are 2.1211/10 for 200 or more.
India 268-9, lead by 463 Century for Ashwin. His fifth Test ton. That’s five more than Tim ‘see you at the Gabba’. He started off his career as a batsman, you know. So not only is he the premier spinner in the world he is also a classic all-rounder. India bating on by the looks of it.
WICKET India 237-9 Back in the game. Just when it looked like 250 was a gimme, Ishant hits one straight up. Ashwin running out of partners for his century which, presumably, would mean he would pip Rohit for man of the match given the inevitability of fourth-innings wickets.
India 230-8, lead by 425 Quick look at the Test Match End Market. Day 4 Morning is 2.407/5. There are 33 left tonight and 26 probable in the first session tomorrow. Hmmm. Not value is it? You’d want England in now with those numbers.
India 224-8, lead by 419 Foakes has missed a stumping. With that and the downed catch he’s close to go in the black book. It was a catch also. India clearly going to bat on to give Ashwin a chance for a century in front of his home crowd.
TEA India 221-8, lead by 416 Bit of a rollercoaster this innings runs bet, eh? It highlights the fun of betting. Always something going on for punters. If you’ve not had a bet you probably think this passage of play is dull. We’re on tenterhooks. Talking through, the pocket not sure why India just don’t stick them in and get on with it.
WICKET India 210-8, lead by 405 Kuldeep gone. Virat looking anxious, standing up and pacing the rooms. Go on, son. Call ’em in. You don;t need any more. Certainly nothing close to 250.
India 210-7, lead by 405 Foakes puts down Ashwin while standing up. Mark Butcher calls it a hard chance. Not really, though, was it? It was a thin edge. And if you back yourself to stand up you back yourself to take the catch. This is not a criticism of Foakes, by the way, more a criticism of the standards of modern-day wicketkeeping. If you’ve grown up watching Jack Russell you tend to be harsh on the modern gloveman but it would have not been in the least surprising to see Russell and many others of his era (Colin Metson a good one) catching flies off pacers. And they certainly wouldn’t have been praised for doing so.
WICKET India 202-7, lead by 397 Kohli’s wicket, after a review naturally, keeps us keen on the runs bet. If England could just squeeze these last three out quickly. They will have had enough of being in the field now. Kuldeep joins Ashwin. No signs yet that the latter is going to have a dart.
India 200-6, lead by 395 Our lay of 250 more is in serious jeopardy. We need India to give us a hand on declaration. But there seems no sign of that with the scoring rate slowing. India could well choose to bat as long as itakes England to bowl them out. Kohli has looked assured. Ashwin has found it easy-going, too. Certainlythe latter has made mugs of England’s batsmen in every respect. England fans can hardly blame the surface. As Sunil Gavaskar says: “It’s not an impossible pitch”.
India 194-6, lead by 389 A few price moves of note. Sportsbook have chopped Stokes to 7/2 from 5s for top England bat, pushing out Burns and Pope to 6s. Foakes is also into 7s. Joe Root and Stokes are rated at 2/1 both to score 30 or more.
India 178-6, lead by 373 Conversion rates data. Kohli has a 50. He is No 6 on the all-time list for converting 50s to 100s with a percentage of 52.9. Sportsbook make him 10/11 to score 80.5 or more.
India 177-6, lead by 372 Where does Foakes fit into this England team long term then? Burns and Lawrence are vulnerable one would say. Burns has suffered a significant dip in form having previously established himself. There was even murmurs of him as a potential future captain. He’s averaging 23.9 in the last 12 months. Lawrence, in reality, is only keeping Zak Crawley’s place warm. Crawley should return for the third Test. It could be a straight swap – Foakes for Buttler.
India 157-6, lead by 352 Back after the break. Another factor to consider for declaration is Kohli’s desire for a ton. Unless he runs out of partners, he could bat for individual honours. Beginning to get a little agitated about our lay 0f 250 or more. Could do with England breaking this partnership.
LUNCH India 156-6, lead by 351 How much longer do India bat for? As long as they like? Do they pluck an arbitrary figure out of the air? 400? 450? Or do England bowl them out? India have enough for sure but they have the time to punish England.
India 150-6, lead by 345 Saying with Sportsbook , they go 8/11 Ashwin for top India bowler in the second-innings. That’s short. Too short, in fact. In three years of home Tests, Ashwin has seven wins from 24 innings. That’s just shy of 30%. He returns money 50% of the time. He will be a popular wager for sure but we can’t advise getting involved at those odds. Axar Patel at 2/1 is an option but that’s also a mean price about an inexperienced performer.
India 133-6, lead by 328 Looking ahead to the fourth innings, then, as we await a declaration or England to take the final four wickets. Sportsbook have top England bat prices. They read: 7/4 Root, 5/1 Sibley, Burns, Stokes, 11/2 Pope, 7 Lawrence, 10 Moeen, Foakes. Here are the win rates in the last three years…
England top bat wins/second innings
Root 5 t/29
The only ‘wrong’ price, then, out of line with those numbers is Sibley at 5s. Everyone else is too skinny. But does Sibley score quick enough on a ‘one with your name on’ pitch? We’re not enamoured.
Pope is the big interest. It’s surprising he has a blank. He looked reasonably assured in the first dig. We certainly wouldn’t discount Foakes again at 10s. Stokes has a significant issue with Ashwin but 20 or 30 could win it.
WICKET India 114-6 Axar is a gonner. But not really relevant now That target of 309 and counting is the definition of improbable. Still, be nice to keep it to 320-330 just on the off-chance that a partnership in the second dig keeps us interested. Coming up, discussion on Foakes and data about top performers in second innings. England 18.017/1.
India 98-5 England are going to have o think long and hard about how to get Foakes in this team as a permanent fixture.
Stumpings in Test Cricket
Ben Foakes (6 Tests)
Made – 5
Missed – 1
Jos Buttler (50 Tests)
Made – 1
Missed – 5#INDvENG
? The CricViz Analyst (@cricvizanalyst) February 15, 2021
WICKET India 86-5 Rahane makes a breezy ten from 14. The lead is 281 runs. England into 17.016/1. That’s in from 36.035/1 first thing and 29.028/1 when we talked about the benefits of a cheeky back0to-lay. COuld get a little shorter yet.
India 74-4 Kohli living a little dangerously. He’s offered a couple of half-chances. Burns, diving to his left, got finger to a drive. Sportsbook have Kohli at 10/11 for 38.5 or more if you are of the belief that he will make serene progress from here.
WICKET India 65-4 Decent intent from India to send in Pant. They want to get on with it. And he’s playing a shot a ball. But one too many as Leach and Foakes combine for another stumping. England into 20.019/1, emphasising how that trade on their price can work. You can still pinch numbers on that. 20.019/1 into early teens with a flurry.
WICKET India 55-3 Foakes is on message. A brilliant stumping to get rid of Rohit. A carbon copy of the one in the first-innings that should have been given. England 29.028/1. Supposing England run through India here for a lead of just 300 or 320, there might, might be a value trade from 29.028/1 to late teens. Improbable but low stakes, decent returns stuff. India lead by 250.
WICKET India 55-2 Pujara, clumsily, run out dropping his bat. Smart work by Pope at short leg. Important sign for England. They have to be present in this game. They are going to lose but there is no point in meek surrender. There remains the opportunity to keep India’s batsmen keen, or to place some insecurities in their minds. Kohli for example would dearly love some runs. Why give him an easy ride?
India 54-1 What ho. Welcome to India’s procession. Just a matter of when – not if – the home team thump home the equaliser in this enthralling series. As short as 1.031/33 with England 36.035/1. The side markets should provide bits and bobs for bets. We also have a lay of India’s innings runs at 2.001/1 for 250 or more live. Let’s go.