Welcome to Betting.Betfair’s live blog with Ed Hawkins for all the tips, trends and stats for day three in the First Test in Chennai. England have resumed on 555-8 and are looking to put the India batting under pressure…
STUMPS India 257-6
India start again tomorrow. England will be fresher. If they can mop up quickly on day four then they will be poised to go for the win. England 2.3611/8, the draw 1.834/5 and India 35.0. See you in the am.
Sundar and Ashwin have knuckled down. How often do we see the lower order showing the top order how to do it. The difference, of course, is had the likes of Gill, Rohit and Rahane been as obdurate they would have been set up for something monstrous. That’s too much to ask of these two. Keeping ingers crossed that India can close in on that 276 figure for the pre-match recommendation.
One thing to bear in mind at this stage as the draw holds at 2.01/1. England are very likely to bat on too long for those of rationale and mathematical disposition. That is Joe Root’s style, particularly after being on the wrong end of a couple of high fourth-innings chases. Say they have a lead of 300, Root will want 400-plus to be safe. Very annoying, of course, but bettors beware and all that.
Stat from CricViz: Rishabh Pant has now been dismissed in the 90s four times in his Test career. Since he made his debut, no other batsmen has been dismissed more than twice between 90 and 99. A lot of noise about Pant’s hitting in this game. It’s a ‘meh’ from us. This ain’t the IPL. It’s Test cricket. India needed to bat time. They needed to put aches and pains in those England legs. Grind it out. Pant has personified their almost entire lack of substance in this Test.
Win, lose or draw, in the first three days they have been appalling. Their field work was sloppy, the captaincy dull and uninspired and they bowled 20 no balls. TWENTY! Two of their five-man attack (both spinners) failed to consistently land their stock ball.
And they have batted in similar vein. Rohit’s lazy waft was fitting for a guy who dropped a dolly and thought it hilarious. Gill, Rahane and Pant all threw their wickets away. The context of this is that India were 1.501/2 to win this Test. Jesus, if you took that price you deserve your pound of flesh.
They had one good spell – one – on day one, 20 minutes after lunch. But then it all felt a bit like too much hard work, Kohli got bored and wanted to try something else. An alarming lack of nouse, concentration and fight.
I think we can safely say that after winning in Australia India have very much believed the hype.
Bess needs one wicket to have collected two of the first five-wicket hauls in Test history. But that’s not his problem. It’s India’s. England strong for a 1-0 lead. And they can do plenty more damage for the rest of the series when they don’t (if) enforce a follow-on. Put more overs into those Indian legs in the field.
Got him in the end. Pant goes to Bess for 91. One big shot too many. England have a very tight grip on this game now. Only one wicket from the bowlers. England 1.814/5. The draw 2.3411/8. Still surprised England are not shorter here. India are 353 behind. They’ll do well to get that below 300 from here.
In contrast to Bess, Jack Leach is not lucky. He is going at almost ten an over. Which is incredible. But had Pant been tucking into Bess in the same manner you just know one would have gone straight up in the air or the ball would have hit a pigeon and fallen into his pocket. If Leach continues to be annihilated then it is impossible to see him playing in the next Test. Moeen Ali is in the squad don’t forget.
Bess a lucky bowler on this tour of Asia. Those five wickets he took in Galle in the first Test were grand larceny. And he’s nicked two more in this innings – Rahane off a full bunger and Pujara off a long hop. Pujara incredibly unlucky. It means Jack leach comes back on. England are gonna try to buy Pant off again.
WICKET India 192-5
Pujara goes for 73. England in to 2.166/5. The draw 1.991/1. Still think the latter is a lay. India have little left. Washington Sundar in next and then Ravi Ashwin. It begs the question: when does Pant go back into full attack mode? Maybe he will have to bide his time.
Couple of other Test matches going on around the world at the moment. In Bangladesh, something of a thriller. All three results in play at the death as West Indies chase 395 with 17 overs left. They are 326 for five with Kyle Mayers on a massive ton. Windies are 2.1211/10 and the draw 2.506/4. Surely Bangladesh just shut up shop? Bet here.
Pakistan are on course for a win over South Africa, who need an improbable 370 in Rawalpindi. Pakistan are 1.374/11.
England will consider shutting up shop, trying to wrestle control back from Pant. Some attrition from Stokes perhaps with Bess from the other end. Draw into 1.654/6.
Pant opens up straight after tea. An uppish cut off Anderson. If he gets a quickfire 80 or so England won’t care. So long as they get him.
Pant has counter-attacked for India. But it doesn’t much change the match situation. India are still in an awful hole. Deep enough, in fact, to put the willies on those who were on the 13/8 about both sides scoring 275 or more in first-innings. England are 2.3811/8, the draw is 1.834/5 and India are 23.022/1. They were 70.069/1 when Rahane was out.
Where are we with our wagers? Well, our two-pointer on 463 or more looks a certain loser. But Pujara’s 50 gives us a 13/8 winner. We have laid the draw at 2.01/1 for three points. We have an in-out trade on India running at 15.014/1 but we might not get a chance to get anything from that.
India 143-4Draw is 1.9010/11.
We’re at the pivotal draw price moment. A wicket soon for England may mean that the stalemate never gets as short again. On day one we advised a back of the draw at 5.004/1. If you took that, lay back now. Job done. Pant is ticking. And although he likes risk, we don’t.
Pant may well make 50 off 40-odd balls here. Maybe he’ll get a 70 off 60. But it’s not really what India need. That’s why we’re going to take that lay of the draw now. It’s now 2.001/1. It’s a solid three-point wager.
Consecutive sixes from Pant off Leach. A shot a ball from him. 25 from just 16 for him. England are going to try to sucker him. And Pant is the kind of player to fall for it. Draw into 2.1011/10. Question is: does Pant fall for it before it goes odds-on?
India in mighty big trouble, then. There’s very little to come after these two. Sundar a Test No 7? He’s unproven. Ashwin can bat but is he really going to get the whopping score that is require. The draw is heading down again with a flurry of boundaries. England won’t mind that. If they get these two ticking they will happily buy a wicket. Draw is 2.166/5. We’re being greedy but if it goes odds-on it’s a lay.
WICKET India 73-4
Rahane goes and there goes the draw price. Out to 2.6213/8. England into 1.608/13. They have the game in their pocket now. It’s Bess again. As we were just saying the draw lay was the wager. If you missed it, hang on. A 50-run partnership will get that down again but we are changing our tune on this wicket and this India batting. At the moment, 300 looks too big an ask.
If you are yet to have a wager on this game, the best bet may now be to lay the draw at 1.8910/11. Sure, you could wait for the big partnership that should be within India’s grasp but what if it never comes? England are bowling well and this is the crucial difference between their attack and India’s: they have control from Bess at one end allowing Root to rotate his seamers. There are also strong signs the pitch is breaking up. Puffs of dust on a length, bite for the spinners.
WICKET India 71-3
Huge wicket for England. A bit of bite and turn for Bess to remove Kohli for 11, the greatest prize. England into 2.265/4 and the draw 1.855/6. India are desperate for a partnership now. Without something big from these two they are looking at a significant first-innings deficit. India are 70.069/1.
England in the hunt with Archer menacing. Wonder if this is the same period for India as England faced after they had lost their second wicket. That spell when Ishant and Ashwin had their tails up? Possibly. Kohli doesn’t look at all comfortable. But it should get easier. Pujara and Kohli should know that. These are the hard yards.
There’s a big prize on offer here for England. If they split the Pujara-Kohli pairing quickly, they are gong to take a chunk out of their price. Currently they are 2.707/4 with the draw 1.684/6 and India 29.028/1. It could be a half-point swing.
LUNCH India 59-2
England very happy with their work. As we said before, India need to knuckle down and do the basic for the first time. They have been sloppy, sloppy, sloppy in this game up until this point.
Why are we not trading out or draw position? Good question. The answer is that we think India are capable of a sizeable partnership. So we’re expecting the draw price to come in from its current 1.625/8. Leach and Bess have had a bowl. Not huge amounts of turn. Can one of them give Root the control that England desperately need to rotate three seamers? That’s the game right there.
WICKET India 44-2
One too many strokes from Gill. Not sure I’m okay with the crowd sound effects for this broadcast. Beery English cheers and jeers greeting runs? Presumably if the broadcast is going for authenticity, deathly silence will meet Kohli’s dismissal.
WICKET India 44-2
One too many strokes from Gill. England 3.3512/5, the draw 1.558/15. This is a poor start from India. They have to get their heads down. Kohli in. If he goes cheaply watch that England price collapse.
Two four off this Anderson over for Gill, who looks like a million bucks. What a fabulous strokemaker this guy is. He already has 22 from 20. This must seem like a breeze after facing Australia’s Big Three.
Another wrong price here with Sportsbook. Kohli is 7/2 for a century. He has a 30% win rate on our filter of home Tests in first innings. That brings us back to our earlier point about not betting him for top bat. We can get better odds of a century than the former. A far better bet because it is ONE bet. We’re not worried about anyone else.
WICKET India 19-1
Rohit is out. Gine for six with Archer doping him in. Rohit’s had a stinker of a game so far. England into 2.809/5 and the draw 1.684/6. India out to 32.031/1.
India innings runs, then. Couple of early spots. More than 475 has some money available at 2.206/5. You can get even money at over 463.5 on the main innings runs line here. That looks pretty cheap and we’ll book ourselves in for a couple of points.
As we were saying before rudely interrupted by England being bowled out. We are nervous about betting one man for most runs because it is such a good batting track. With so many likely to score well, best to focus on the to score a fifty or to score a ton markets. Let’s check the win rates for India batsmen at home for a fifty in first innings…
Any wrong prices there? Yes. Pujara is giving us more than seven percentage points on this market at 13/8. That’s a bet, folks. And a darn good one considering his talent and ability to grind out scores. This track should be right up his street. Kohli isn’t a wrong price. He is an an 11/10 shot which is 47.6%.
WICKET England 578 all out
England have achieved nowt for about the last hour game time. Ashwin picks up a third giving him a tie on top India bowler. His backers will at least get some money back. Price check: India 23.022/1, England 3.052/1, 1.584/7 the draw.
Let’s start turning our attention to top India batsman in the first-innings. We touched on this yesterday. It is tricky to pick out one batsmen to outscore everyone at the best times but on an absolute road? That’s tough. But don’t try it without knowing who is a wrong price. Here are the win rates for India’s batters…
Last 3 years India top batsman wins/matches/win%
Pujara 5 t/30/16.6
What do those numbers mean? Well, the win rates are key. Virat Kohli wins 42.8% of the time. Betfair Sportsbook make him 13/5 for honours – that an implied probability of 27.8%. Value klaxon. Getting a massive edge on one of the world’s top four batsmen? It is not a mug bet. Box ticked. First hurdle cleared etcetera. If you are going to play on this market, Kohli is your only option in terms of ‘wrong price’. And we only bet on wrong price. Pujara is 7/2. Rohit 5/1. Pant 6/1. Gill 9/2.
WICKET England 567-9
Bess out. Trapped in front by Bumrah. The new ball, just taken, works immediately. Significant for top India bowler. Ashwin, the short 15/8 favourite, cannot win. He can only tie. A few folks will be raging about that.
What are England achieving here? Glad you asked that. The answer is not much. There are two schools of thought in this situation. The first focusses on the masochistic. Make India suffer. In a four-Test series the opportunity to put overs in the legs of the fielders and bowlers is not to be passed up. Second? Get on and win the game. All England are doing is taking time out of the match. They are not scoring runs at a rate damaging enough nor putting overs on the pitch to add to wear and tear. We’re off the latter view. At this stage, England would be better served asking questions about this India batting. It’s all about opportunity. It is not a given that in game two they bat first. It’s not a given that if they do they bust 550. Grasp the nettle. We know the game is drifting because of the odds.
The soundtrack to these surreal early-starts is the klaxon notifying a no-ball, no? Wooot! Wooot! We’ve just heard it for the 20th time in this England innings. Wonder whether India’s filders hear that sound in their dreams? Does it stalk them in the small hours like it does us? Doiubt it. If it did they wouldn’t keep bowling them. India have been poor. I don’t think enough has been made of that.
Come on, look lively. You should have acclimatised by now to these early starts. It’s black outside but bright inside as we get the betting juices pumping for day three. This Test should get a move on now after the market lolled around and dragged its feet. Price check coming up as we await ball one India are 23.022/1, England 3.052/1 and the draw is 1.584/7.