The first tip I’m going to give you is to start considering the betting market above and below.
You could bet with runners who point to a mark, for example, 10–11 for the number of corner shots during a match. As a bettor you have to decide whether to put your money at a figure that is above the 11 corner shots, or below 10.
For example, you could bet $ 10 per point that the number of equine shots will go up. If 15 corners are produced, you will have a benefit of (15–11) x 10 = $ 40. If only 8 corner shots are taken, then you must pay the runner (11–8) x 10 = $ 30.
The same rule applies in reverse if you go down.
Now imagine that you enter a room where you are the only one who really knows football but everyone bets. Everyone but you does it at random and the bookmakers do not know the average corner shots that can occur during a match.
It turns out that you do know that the average number of corners in a match is 10.5. Most of the time they occur between 9 and 12 per game, it is typical (sometimes more, sometimes less).
Keep imagining that the runner knows nothing about football and decides to put the mark in 4–5 corner kicks at the start of the bet.
You will go up and you will have a great benefit but the other punters will listen to your heart. Some believe that there will be no corner shots, others that will be a game without many opportunities for attack and bet on the downside, and there will even be one that believes that it will be a match like few, of those that fill the eye of the common fan and will occur 20 corner kicks.
If we assume that each bettor can predict every number of corners between 0 and 22 by an equal, then the odds of being victorious would be: 1/23 = 4.35% consider that there will be no corner shots; 4.35% believe there will be 19; 4.35% that will occur 14, etc.
If the punters begin to see how the crowd behaves, they will bet on the upside and the runner will realize because although he does not know about the sport, he is not stupid and for his business to produce profits, he must have a 50/50 balance between Winnings down and up (Suppose you bet $ 10 up and $ 10 down, your broker will take a profit of $ 10 with you. You will benefit by maintaining the balance). This is why if the broker starts to see that the market is going up, the mark will rise for example 7–8 after the first 30 bets (observing how the punters behave) and if it continues to rise, the mark will rise 10–11 after the first 70 bets.Since you understand the game and know its statistics, it is your duty to bet before the runner realizes his mistake and modifies his mark, this is how you will get the best possible win. Of course, keep in mind that when you bet on a crowd without knowledge, the probability that you can bet before them is very small. You should always be one step ahead and thinking about all possible scenarios, just as a player does on the pitch.
Another way to win, is to perceive the behavior described above by the group of punters, and wait for the runner to rise to 12–13 to generate balance, and there you go down (this occurs rarely and lasts relatively little time because it is done to cause balance in bets).
Although I described a scenario of deep ignorance on the part of the runner and the punters, you will wonder how a bookmaker and punters who don’t know anything about football can make it difficult for me, an expert, to not generate great benefits?
The answer is easy, you get it by seeing the average. Although nobody knew like you that on average there are 10.5 corner shots in a game, the crowd will approach or hit that number, although less than 10% of the total guesses.
I invite you to do an experiment. For example, ask your friends how many yellow cards the referee will draw in the next match between your favorite team and his rival. Look for the average of yellow cards that both teams have received, add them and you will see that the average of your sample will approach (try to do it with a large group of people even if they do not know anything about the sport, from 50 onwards).