Alex Hales 42% Win Rate Last 2 years
Hales is the surprising No 1 for top bats in the Bash. Surprising because he has almost always been poor value in other franchise leagues around the world. Perhaps, the flat fast surfaces suit his swashbuckling style.
With a duck and 46 in his two outings so far, it could be argued he is due a winner. Sportsbook are on to it but the 5/2 they offer for Thunder’s next match against Perth on Tuesday.
On win rate that is a massive swing in our favour at 13.4%.
His main rival is Callum Ferguson, who has a 27% hit rate. At 7/2 that gives us a five per cent point edge buit our rule on this market is to side with the man who has the greatest edge. Our second rule is that we don’t wager these hitters for back-to-back successes. It’s important to pick your spots.
Aaron Finch 36.8% Win Rate
Dominant for Australia in Twenty20 internationals, he has been Mr Reliable for the Renegades. Or is it that he’s had little to beat? Shaun Marsh threatens that supremacy this term as his opening partner. Marsh has a win rate of 29%.
We will have to wait, however, for a chance to bet the big man. He has left the Renegades’ bubble for a much-needed break. The chance to refresh and re-set could mean he is a cracker of a bet when he returns at around the 12/5 mark. Marsh claims favourite status in his absence at the same price but it is not a rick.
D’Arcy Short 34.6% Win Rate
Short is one win from three this season so we are biding our time for the next opportunity. Our timing was off when we were on him for game one. He fell for a duck against Sixers. Typically he top scored in his next outing against the Strikers.
It is a case of trying to maximise profits on Short before Matthew Wade, his opening partner, becomes available. Wade is playing for Australia in the Test series against Australia. Together, the pair dominate the Hobart market with Wade enjoying a 34.7 win rate.
Colin Ingram 35.7% Win Rate
The South African appears to represent huge value on the top Hobart runscorer market, particularly with one win already to his name. However, he has been part of the Strikers squad for the majority of those wins where he had very little to beat. With Short so dominant – and Wade to return – one needs to be canny when getting involved. At No 5 we should be expecting at least 5/1.
Marcus Stoinis 37.5% Win Rate
Stoinis in consistent top scorer shock! You don’t need us to tell you whether Stoinis has a good record or not winning this market. But you might need us to tell you whether he is value to win. He is expected to go off as short as 2/1, which is about as skinny as it gets in this format. That price still gives you four implied probability points in your favour. But there’s another guy who might have a say…
Glenn Maxwell 29.6% Win Rate
The Big Show is rated at 16/5 ordinarily by Sportsbook.
That is an edge in the punters’ favour of just over five points.
Do we back him then, ahead of Stoinis? Tough to say. Maxwell could bat at as high as No 3 or as low as No 5. With Stoinis we are guaranteed a wager that will open and get the best opportunity to go big.
Josh Philippe 28% Win Rate
Philippe is the next Finch. Or Warner. Or Gilchrist. He toped the Sydney Sixers’ runcharts last season as he went under the radar but the secret is out. He is giving us just over a point at 11/5. With him topping only a game a go, we will have to bide our time. But it could be that the win margins and odds are too narrow for us to actually bet him that much considering our rule of not following in on a player for back-to-back successes.